It’s Week 16 of the fantasy football season. For many of us, it’s championship week. Start/Sit decisions made over the next few days will be the difference between claiming the title of “Champion,” or “Runner-up.”
DVOA will frequently be referenced in this article. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
All player matchups are based on PPR scoring with some projections, stats, and facts from Rotoworld, Fantasy Pros, Gridiron Experts, Fantasy Footballers, and One Week Season.
Mitchell Trubisky at San Francisco 49ers
- 49ers have allowed 2+ passing TDs in 11 of 14 games
- Injuries have riddled the 49ers secondary
- 49ers have allowed a QB1 in 3 of the last 4 games
- In the last 6 games, QBs have scored an average of 20 fantasy points vs. 49ers
Aaron Rodgers at New York Jets
- Jets are allowing 20.3 fantasy points to QBs over the last 6 games
- Only two teams have faced more WRs targets than the Jets
- Jets have allowed 2+ passing TDs in 9 of their last 11
- Aaron Jones is out for the season. The Packers will rely on the pass
Jared Goff at Arizona Cardinals
- Cardinals have allowed only 1 QB to finish above QB10 this season
- Goff has struggled on the road this year
- Cardinals are easier to attack on the ground (22nd DVOA and 22nd Yards allowed per carry) than in the air (10th DVOA and 7th Yards allowed per pass)
- At home, the Cardinals allow only 10.8 fantasy points to QBs per game
Philip Rivers vs Baltimore Ravens
- Baltimore has allowed only 12.7 fantasy point to QBs over the last 6 games
- At 4th DVOA and 1st Yards allowed per pass, the Ravens pass defense is a QB nightmare
- Top WR option Keenan Allen may miss the game or play injured
- Only 3 teams have allowed fewer passing TDs than the Ravens and only 2 teams have allowed fewer passing yards
Running Back Starts
Marlon Mack vs New York Giants
- Colts are a 9 point home favorite. Setting up a great game script for running the ball
- Giants have allowed 897 rushing yards (128 per game) and 7 TDs since trading defensive tackle Damon “Snacks” Harrison
- Since week 7, Mack has seen an average of 18 carries in wins this season
- Giants have allowed 27.4 fantasy points per game to RBs over the last 6 games
Sony Michel vs Buffalo Bills
- Patriots are a 12.5 point home favorite. Setting up a great game script for running the ball
- Bills have allowed the 2nd most red zone rushing TDs in the NFL
- Michel averages 17.75 carries over the last 4 games, dominating the Patriot’s rush attempts
- Bills are 23rd in fantasy points allowed to RBs on the year
Elijah McGuire vs Packers
- McGuire has 21 and 20 touches for 83 and 71 yards over the last two weeks (4 targets in each game)
- Packers run defense comes in at 29th DVOA and 17th Yards allowed per carry
- The Packers have allowed a top 24 RB in all but 2 games this season
- Packers have placed starting nose tackle Kenny Clark on Injured Reserve. Pro Football Focus grades Clark as the #8 interior defensive lineman
Running Back Sits
James White vs Buffalo Bills
- White has been a top 36 just once over his last five games
- Pats are a 12.5 point home favorite, setting up a run-heavy game script favoring Michel
- White averaged 8.9 targets in the first 11 games, but only 6.25 over the last 4.
- In the last 5 games, White has averaged 4.4 carries
Jamaal Williams at New York Jets
- Jets have given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to RBs over the last 6 games
- In the last 2 weeks, the Jets have held the Bills and Texans running backs to just 67 scoreless yards on 30 carries.
- Jets have given up the most points to WRs and 3rd most points to QBs over the last 6 games (its an Aaron Rodgers game)
- Williams has averaged only 3.7 yards per carry on the year
Gus Edwards at San Diego Chargers
- Ravens are 5.5 point road underdogs, setting up pass-heavy game script
- Edwards has 0 targets since week 11
- The Chargers rank 13th in yards allowed per carry, and are allowing the sixth fewest opponent plays per game
- Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards on the season
Wide Receiver Starts
Robby Anderson vs Green Bay Packers
- Anderson has 18 targets since Darnold returned in Week 14
- The Packers have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (10) to opposing teams WR1
- Anderson’s average depth of target with Enunwa off the field is 19.7 yards (Enunwa is out)
- Green Bay is allowing 30 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs in the last 6 games
DaeSean Hamilton at Raiders
- Hamilton has 21 targets in the last 2 games
- Raiders pass defense comes in at 32nd DVOA and 30th Yards allowed per pass
- Hamilton occupies the slot in Denver, Keenum is very comfortable throwing to the slot as seen with Emmanuel Sanders and Adam Thielen.
- Raiders have allowed 20 WR touchdowns, second most.
Tyler Lockett vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Chiefs have given up the most deep-ball plays on the season
- Lockett has an average depth of target of 12.7 yards
- The Chiefs see the 4th highest pass to run ratio in the NFL
- Russell Wilson will be forced to throw to keep up with the Chiefs, Lockett is his WR1
Wide Receiver Sits
Chris Hogan vs Buffalo Bills
- Hogan is likey taking over the Josh Gordon role, Gordon only saw 12% of targets over the last 4 games
- Over the last 6 games, the Bills are only allowing 10.8 fantasy points per game to QBs (1st) and only 20.2 fantasy points to WRs (5th)
- Hogan posted only 7 catches and 81 yards in three games without Gordon (with 2 TDs)
- Bills pass defense comes in at 3rd DVOA and 3rd Yards allowed per pass
Corey Davis vs Washington Redskins
- Davis averages only 4.8 targets over the last 5 games, topping 42 yards only once during that span
- Mariota has only 44 passing attempts in the last 2 games
- RB Derrick Henry has 51 touches over the last two weeks and rolls into this game against a Redskins run defense that comes in at 25th DVOA and 21st Yards allowed per carry
- Davis will likely see Josh Norman shadow coverage in a run-heavy game
Jarvis Landry vs Cincinnati Bengals
- The Browns are a 7 point home favorite, projecting a run-heavy approach for Cleveland
- Landry has 3 or less catches in 4 of the last 5 games
- Over the last 6 games, the Bengals are allowing the 2nd most RB fantasy points in the league, setting up for a Nick Chubb game.
- Landry went 3-30 in week 12 vs Bengals
Tight End Starts
Evan Engram at Indianapolis Colts
- Engram has gone 11-152 on 17 targets in the two games without Odell Beckham Jr.
- Colts allow 14.6 fantasy points per game to the TE this season
- Engram has played 13 games without Beckham to date, averaging 4.6 receptions for 55 yards on 8 targets per game
- The Colts allow 55.8% of their receiving TD to come from TEs, 1st in the league
Jared Cook vs Denver Broncos
- Cook has at least 11 PPR points in four of his last five games
- In 7 games at home, Cook has 41 receptions for 642 yards and 4 TDs.
- The Broncos give up 14.6 fantasy points to the TE over the last 6 games
- Cook has averaged 7.1 targets a game over the last 6 games
Tight End Sits
Vance McDonald at New Orleans Saints
- McDonald hasn’t had more than 4 catches since week 8.
- The Saints have allowed the 5th fewest points to TEs this season.
- McDonald has also not had over 47 yards since week 6.
- The Saints havent allowed more than 54 yards to a TE this season.
Ian Thomas vs Falcons
- The Falcons have allowed only 4.3 fantasy points to TEs over the last 6 games
- Cam Newton is out, Taylor Heinicke will get his first start at QB.
- The Falcons haven’t allowed more than 47 yards receiving to a TE since Week 9
- Thomas is going to be TD dependent in this game and Atlanta hasn’t given up a TD to a tight end since week 9
You can find me @TOrginski on Twitter, happy to answer any fantasy or DFS related questions. Best of luck!