NASCAR: When Will Kyle Busch get 200?

Kyle Busch is just one win away from his 200th win, which would tie Richard Petty for the most wins of all time across NASCAR’s top three series. He’s going to get the 200th win—it’s just a matter of when. The next month or so includes very favorable tracks for the 2015 Cup champion, so here are the next five tracks on the circuit ranked by his average finish there.

1. Richmond Raceway (4/13)

Average finish: 6.93.

Kyle’s average finish here is blistering—in fact it’s best among all active drivers by a decent margin. It’s for good reason, too. Busch and the spring race at Richmond go hand in hand. He’s won it five times, including a span between 2009 and 2012 when he won four spring races in a row at Richmond. He got the season sweep at Richmond last year, giving him six wins overall. I’d be surprised if Kyle makes it this long before he reaches win 200. But if we do, it feels almost as if Busch is a lock to do it here.

2. Auto Club Speedway (3/17)

Average finish: 10.4

Will Kyle Busch find a four-leaf clover on St. Patrick’s Day in Fontana? He may not need the luck of the Irish because Auto Club Speedway is one of his best tracks. He got his first win here in 2005, and his two other wins in 2013 and 2014 came in exciting fashion. Only Jimmie Johnson has more wins at Auto Club with six. But it’s no secret Hendrick Motorsport is struggling, so Busch will be an odds-on favorite to win here. Busch is also racing in the Xfinity Series race here Saturday, so could win 200 come just six days after #199? He swept last weekend at Phoenix, and Kyle Busch is known to break out the broom multiple times in a season.

3. Texas Motor Speedway (3/31):

Average finish: 11.81

In the last 12 races at Texas, Busch has three wins—including last spring—and 8 top 5s. But in three of the last four races, he’s finished outside the top 10. Once again, the only active driver with more wins at Texas is Jimmie Johnson with seven, but unless the 48 team has a sharp turnaround, Kyle will be the man to beat in the Lone Star state.

4. Martinsville Speedway (3/24)

Average finish: 12.3.

Don’t let the average finish fool you. In the last seven races at Martinsville, Busch has finished in the top 5 in each of them and has won two races. Kyle has a knack for every track on the circuit considering he’s won at all of them—but short tracks are especially good to him. The driver with the most wins at Martinsville is Jimmie Johnson. Seeing a trend here? But Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin has five wins here, and brother Kurt Busch has a pair of wins, too. Kyle is poised to run well here, but he’ll have some stiff competition.

5.Bristol Motor Speedway (4/7)

Average finish: 14.26

Bristol seems to be hit-or-miss for Kyle. In the last nine races at Thunder Valley, he has six finishes of 20th or worse. But he also has two wins in that span and seven overall at the track, which is rivaled only by his brother, Kurt. Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski all have a pair of wins there, too. Recent history showed this could be win 200 for Kyle, but it’s not nearly as likely as the aforementioned tracks.

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